Who will control the New Hampshire General Court?
Forecast for all 24 State Senate seats and all 400 State House seats on the ballot November 3, 2026. Updated 2026-11-02.
State Senate
Expected Democratic seats: 10.5 of 24 (90% range 8–14). Majority is 13. Republicans hold 16 of 24 seats today.
State House
Expected Democratic seats: 202.2 of 400 (90% range 162–247). Majority is 201. Republicans hold 211 seats, Democrats 170, one independent, 18 vacant (House Clerk, Aug 27, 2026).
Statewide environment
The model's estimate of the statewide two-party vote in a generic New Hampshire legislative race is D+2.9. That is built from a generic statewide environment of D+7.9 (polls 87%, structural midterm prior 13%), minus 5.0 points because New Hampshire legislative candidates run behind their party's top of the ticket (see the backtests). The 2024 presidential result here was D+2.8. How this was built →
What if the polls are off?
Drag to set where the statewide generic legislative vote actually lands and see what each chamber looks like. The model's current estimate is marked. The preset buttons apply the statewide misses measured in the 2022 and 2024 backtests (polls understated Democrats in 2022 and overstated them in 2024). Odds here come from a separate simulation at each statewide value, with regional and district error still in play.
State Senate
State House
Maps
Hover or tap for details; click to open the district page. Senate districts are coloured by the Democratic win probability. House base districts are coloured by the expected Democratic share of their seats; floterial districts overlap them and are listed on the seats page. The town view colours each town by the expected Democratic share of all House seats covering it (base plus floterial).
Senate seats most likely to flip
| Seat | Held by | P(flip) | P(Dem) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate District 11 | R Tim McGough | 55% | 55% |
| Senate District 9 | R Denise Ricciardi | 50% | 50% |
| Senate District 18 | R Victoria Sullivan | 42% | 42% |
| Senate District 12 | R Kevin Avard | 24% | 24% |
| Senate District 7 | R Dan Innis | 19% | 19% |
| Senate District 16 | R Keith Murphy | 13% | 13% |
| Senate District 3 | R Mark McConkey | 11% | 11% |
| Senate District 8 | R open | 9% | 9% |
| Senate District 1 | R David Rochefort | 9% | 9% |
| Senate District 2 | R Timothy Lang Sr. | 8% | 8% |
| Senate District 17 | R Howard Pearl | 6% | 6% |
| Senate District 14 | R Sharon Carson | 5% | 5% |
Closest Senate races
| Seat | Candidates | Margin | P(Dem) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate District 9 | Matthew McLaughlin (D) v. Denise Ricciardi (R) | even | 50% |
| Senate District 11 | Shannon Chandley (D) v. Tim McGough (R) | D+1.0 | 55% |
| Senate District 18 | Leonard Bell (D) v. Victoria Sullivan (R) | R+1.5 | 42% |
| Senate District 12 | Carryl Roy (D) v. Kevin Avard (R) | R+5.2 | 24% |
| Senate District 7 | Rebecca Harned (D) v. Dan Innis (R) | R+6.5 | 19% |
| Senate District 16 | Dian McCarthy (D) v. Keith Murphy (R) | R+8.4 | 13% |
| Senate District 3 | Bobbi Boudman (D) v. Mark McConkey (R) | R+9.0 | 11% |
| Senate District 8 | David Trumble (D) v. Jim Creighton (R) | R+10.0 | 9% |
| Senate District 1 | Cathleen Fountain (D) v. David Rochefort (R) | R+9.8 | 9% |
| Senate District 2 | Kurt Webber (D) v. Timothy Lang Sr. (R) | R+10.6 | 8% |
| Senate District 17 | Robert Lawliss (D) v. Howard Pearl (R) | R+11.8 | 6% |
| Senate District 14 | Timothy Wyatt (D) v. Sharon Carson (R) | R+12.6 | 5% |
House districts most likely to change hands
Expected change in Democratic seats versus the seats Democrats hold there now (vacant seats count as held by no one).
| District | Seats | Held D–R | Expected D | P(D gains) | P(D loses) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockingham 16 | 7 | 0–7 | 1.6 | 64% | 0% |
| Rockingham 13 | 10 | 0–10 | 1.5 | 57% | 0% |
| Hillsborough 42 | 3 | 0–3 | 1.3 | 73% | 0% |
| Hillsborough 29 | 4 | 0–3 (1 vac.) | 1.3 | 65% | 0% |
| Hillsborough 2 | 7 | 2–5 | 3.3 | 60% | 25% |
| Hillsborough 12 | 8 | 3–5 | 4.1 | 58% | 29% |
| Cheshire 1 | 1 | 0–0 (1 vac.) | 1.0 | 100% | 0% |
| Rockingham 11 | 4 | 3–0 (1 vac.) | 4.0 | 100% | 0% |
| Hillsborough 39 (floterial) | 2 | 0–1 (1 vac.) | 0.9 | 67% | 0% |
| Rockingham 24 | 2 | 1–0 (1 vac.) | 1.9 | 94% | 1% |
| Hillsborough 6 | 3 | 2–0 (1 vac.) | 2.9 | 92% | 1% |
| Carroll 7 (floterial) | 1 | 1–0 | 0.1 | 0% | 87% |
| Rockingham 1 | 3 | 0–3 | 0.9 | 54% | 0% |
| Grafton 9 | 1 | 0–0 (1 vac.) | 0.8 | 82% | 0% |
| Hillsborough 10 | 3 | 2–1 | 2.8 | 82% | 0% |
Closest House districts
Districts where the expected Democratic seat share is nearest to half.
| District | Seats | Candidates D–R | Party margin | Expected D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough 12 | 8 | 8–8 +1 | D+0.8 | 4.1 |
| Sullivan 6 | 3 | 3–3 | D+0.5 | 1.5 |
| Sullivan 5 | 1 | 1–1 | D+2.1 | 0.5 |
| Hillsborough 39 (floterial) | 2 | 2–2 | R+0.6 | 0.9 |
| Sullivan 8 (floterial) | 2 | 2–2 | R+1.9 | 0.9 |
| Hillsborough 19 | 2 | 2–2 | D+1.9 | 1.1 |
| Hillsborough 2 | 7 | 7–7 | R+0.2 | 3.3 |
| Grafton 18 (floterial) | 1 | 1–1 | D+1.4 | 0.4 |
| Hillsborough 42 | 3 | 3–3 | D+0.2 | 1.3 |
| Hillsborough 16 | 2 | 2–2 | D+1.7 | 1.2 |
| Strafford 19 (floterial) | 3 | 3–3 | R+1.2 | 1.2 |
| Strafford 4 | 3 | 3–3 | D+2.0 | 1.8 |
| Strafford 5 | 1 | 1–1 +1 | R+0.2 | 0.6 |
| Cheshire 10 | 2 | 2–2 | R+1.0 | 0.8 |
| Hillsborough 45 (floterial) | 1 | 1–1 | D+0.1 | 0.4 |
Seats by rating
State Senate
| Rating | Seats | Districts |
|---|---|---|
| Safe D | 8 | 4, 5, 10, 13, 15, 20, 21, 24 |
| Tilt D | 1 | 11 |
| Toss-up | 1 | 9 |
| Tilt R | 1 | 18 |
| Lean R | 1 | 12 |
| Likely R | 7 | 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 16, 17 |
| Safe R | 5 | 6, 14, 19, 22, 23 |