House District Sullivan 8 (floterial)

Upper Valley · 2 seats · Acworth, Claremont Ward 1, Claremont Ward 2, Claremont Ward 3, Croydon, Goshen, Langdon, Lempster, Springfield, Sunapee, Washington · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts

Forecast

0.9 expected Democratic seats of 2

Held today: 1 D, 1 R
On the ballot: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
District party margin: R+1.9 (90% range R+12.9 to D+9.0)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 26%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 32%
Rating (seat share): Toss-up

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Hope Damon (incumbent)	D	57%
Catherine Peschke	R	53%
Jonathan Stone	R	53%
Samuel Deering	D	37%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-4.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+2.0

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+5.5	D+2.8	-8.3	0.4
2024 Governor	R+15.0	R+9.5	-5.5	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+0.6	D+9.3	-8.8	0.2
2022 Governor	R+24.3	R+15.8	-8.6	0.1
2020 President	R+1.6	D+7.4	-9.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+0.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +2.7, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+0.1

D Hope Damon (i)	5,992	✓
R Michael Aron	5,744	✓
R Jonathan F. Stone (i)	5,581
D Codi Raymond	5,351

2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin R+1.4

D Damon	4,454	✓
R Stone	4,436	✓
R Bettencourt	4,433
D Lovett	4,179