NH Legislature 2026

The statewide environment

How polls of the governor's race, the congressional races, the national generic ballot and the one legislative generic-ballot poll become a single statewide swing applied to every district.

2024 presidential two-party margin in New Hampshire (anchor)D+2.8
Structural prior: midterm swing against the president's party (R), 4.0 pts, worth 1500 "effective respondents"D+6.8
National generic congressional ballot: 164 polls, weighted average D+7.8 → implied generic margin D+10.2 (source weight 0.15)
national generic +7.8 plus NH lean vs nation +4.3 = +12.1; 80% pass-through from the anchor		D+10.2
NH-01 and NH-02 head-to-head polls: 5 polls, weighted average D+9.0 → implied generic margin D+7.1 (source weight 0.15)
NH-01/NH-02 head-to-heads, incumbent bonus removed (nh_cd1 +0, nh_cd2 -3), averaged +9.0; 70% pass-through from the anchor		D+7.1
New Hampshire voters' U.S. House preference: 2 polls, weighted average D+9.0 → implied generic margin D+7.8 (source weight 0.15)
statewide federal preference +9.0; 80% pass-through from the anchor		D+7.8
Governor: Ayotte v. Warmington: 13 polls, weighted average R+4.8 → implied generic margin D+4.0 (source weight 0.2)
governor margin -4.8 minus the governor's personal vote (-10) = +5.2; 50% of the way from the anchor		D+4.0
New Hampshire legislative generic ballot (UNH): 2 polls, weighted average D+10.0 → implied generic margin D+10.0 (source weight 0.35)
used directly (asks which party should control the legislature)		D+10.0
Combined poll estimate (effective n ≈ 10331)D+8.1
Blend: polls 87%, prior 13%D+7.9
Legislative candidates run behind the top of the ticket (offset)-5.0
Statewide generic legislative marginD+2.9
Swing applied to every district vs the 2024 presidential result+0.1

Simulated range of the statewide legislative margin on Election Day: 90% between R+3.3 and D+9.2 (SD 4.0 pts, Student-t tails).

National generic congressional ballot

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
ActiVote2026-10-22 – 2026-10-302000LV53.546.5D+7.0D+7.02.7%link
Ipsos2026-10-20 – 2026-10-281209LV50.044.0D+6.0D+6.03.9%link
Tufts University / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-271000A47.036.0D+11.0D+9.53.5%link
Tufts University / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-27499LV52.040.0D+12.0D+12.01.2%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-22 – 2026-10-261164LV53.044.0D+9.0D+9.03.4%link
Emerson College2026-10-24 – 2026-10-261000LV52.042.0D+10.0D+10.03.2%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-10-24 – 2026-10-26LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.01.2%link
NPR / PBS / Marist University2026-10-19 – 2026-10-26LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.01.2%link
NPR / PBS / Marist University2026-10-19 – 2026-10-261289RV52.042.0D+10.0D+9.00.9%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-22 – 2026-10-261280RV50.041.0D+9.0D+8.01.8%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261123LV52.041.0D+11.0D+11.03.5%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261263LV50.041.0D+9.0D+9.01.9%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-23 – 2026-10-261430RV46.040.0D+6.0D+5.01.0%link
Cygnal R2026-10-23 – 2026-10-241500LV52.043.0D+9.0D+11.01.5%link
Echelon InsightsNetChoice2026-10-16 – 2026-10-233644LV51.046.0D+5.0D+5.05.1%link
CBS / YouGov2026-10-21 – 2026-10-231749LV53.045.0D+8.0D+8.03.8%link
Targoz Market Research2026-10-20 – 2026-10-221118LV49.046.0D+3.0D+3.02.2%link
Prolific2026-10-21 – 2026-10-221118RV50.040.0D+10.0D+9.01.4%link
Prolific2026-10-21 – 2026-10-22713LV53.042.0D+11.0D+11.00.5%link
ActiVote2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.00.6%link
Clarity Campaign Labs2026-10-15 – 2026-10-211016LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.01.9%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201594LV53.044.0D+9.0D+9.01.5%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201496RV45.040.0D+5.0D+4.00.4%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201312LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.2%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201179LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.00.1%link
Pennsylvania State University / YouGov2026-10-14 – 2026-10-20724LV47.043.0D+4.0D+4.02.1%link
Morning ConsultDeseret News & the Hinckley Institute of Politics2026-10-13 – 2026-10-202050RV48.042.0D+6.0D+5.02.8%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201845A49.040.0D+9.0D+7.50.8%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-16 – 2026-10-201648RV51.041.0D+10.0D+9.00.4%link
The Rainey Center2026-10-14 – 2026-10-201279RV52.044.0D+8.0D+7.01.3%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-16 – 2026-10-191679A40.029.0D+11.0D+9.50.7%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-10-16 – 2026-10-191279RV47.035.0D+12.0D+11.00.3%link
The New York Times / Siena University2026-10-12 – 2026-10-193494RV51.039.0D+12.0D+11.02.1%link
The New York Times / Siena University2026-10-12 – 2026-10-193494LV52.041.0D+11.0D+11.01.0%link
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion StrategiesCNBC2026-10-14 – 2026-10-181000RV52.045.0D+7.0D+6.02.1%link
CNN /SSRS2026-10-15 – 2026-10-181206RV49.039.0D+10.0D+9.02.3%link
RMG ResearchNapolitan News Service2026-10-13 – 2026-10-142000RV51.043.0D+8.0D+7.02.2%link
ActiVote2026-10-04 – 2026-10-141000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.00.2%link
The Washington Post / ABC News / Ipsos2026-10-09 – 2026-10-132032LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.02.4%link
SurveyMonkeyNBC News Decision Desk2026-09-28 – 2026-10-1217649RV55.045.0D+10.0D+9.05.6%link
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News2026-10-09 – 2026-10-121202RV54.045.0D+9.0D+8.01.1%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-10 – 2026-10-121403RV46.039.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Morning Consult2026-10-05 – 2026-10-1117654LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.02.6%link
Cygnal R2026-10-07 – 2026-10-101500LV51.042.0D+9.0D+11.00.4%link
TrueDotNewsNation and Decision Desk HQ2026-10-05 – 2026-10-09974LV49.042.0D+7.0D+7.00.7%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-051173LV51.040.0D+11.0D+11.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-05995LV52.040.0D+12.0D+12.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-30 – 2026-10-054506A37.030.0D+7.0D+5.50.1%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-30 – 2026-10-053526RV44.037.0D+7.0D+6.00.1%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-10-02 – 2026-10-052201LV52.044.0D+8.0D+8.00.1%link
Morning Consult2026-09-28 – 2026-10-0417659LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.9%link
Pew Research Center2026-09-28 – 2026-10-043917RV44.036.0D+8.0D+7.02.0%link
University of Massachusetts Lowell / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-041000LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.01.1%link
Cygnal R2026-10-01 – 2026-10-021500LV52.043.0D+9.0D+11.00.1%link
CBS News / YouGov2026-09-30 – 2026-10-021572LV54.045.0D+9.0D+9.01.3%link
ActiVote2026-09-22 – 2026-10-021000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.1%link
I&I/ TIPP Insights R2026-09-29 – 2026-10-011328RV46.042.0D+4.0D+5.00.4%link
Centerline Research & Strategy2026-09-26 – 2026-10-01930LV50.042.0D+8.0D+8.00.4%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-24 – 2026-09-301794LV47.044.0D+3.0D+5.00.3%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-09-26 – 2026-09-282200RV50.050.0evenR+1.00.3%link
AlphaROCThe Independent Center2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281000A43.037.0D+6.0D+4.50.4%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281003LV53.038.0D+15.0D+15.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-25 – 2026-09-281423RV45.037.0D+8.0D+7.00.0%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-09-26 – 2026-09-28LV51.049.0D+2.0D+2.00.1%link
Quinnipiac University2026-09-24 – 2026-09-271032RV51.039.0D+12.0D+11.00.8%link
Morning Consult2026-09-21 – 2026-09-2718786LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.3%link
Angus Reid Global2026-09-19 – 2026-09-251205A45.034.0D+11.0D+9.50.6%link
Angus Reid Global2026-09-19 – 2026-09-251041RV49.035.0D+14.0D+13.00.3%link
Angus Reid Global2026-09-19 – 2026-09-25919RV56.040.0D+16.0D+15.00.1%link
GBAOThird Way D2026-09-17 – 2026-09-242000RV50.041.0D+9.0D+6.00.3%link
Change Research D2026-09-15 – 2026-09-242021RV46.039.0D+7.0D+4.00.3%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-17 – 2026-09-231819LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.1%link
The Argument /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221603RV48.041.0D+7.0D+6.00.4%link
The Argument /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221603RV53.047.0D+6.0D+5.00.2%link
The Argument /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22LV50.041.0D+9.0D+9.00.1%link
The Argument /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-22LV55.045.0D+10.0D+10.00.0%link
McLaughlin & Associates R2026-09-16 – 2026-09-221000LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.2%link
Emerson College2026-09-21 – 2026-09-221000LV53.042.0D+11.0D+11.00.3%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-18 – 2026-09-211394RV45.036.0D+9.0D+8.00.0%link
Strength In Numbers /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211528A49.041.0D+8.0D+6.50.3%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-18 – 2026-09-21975LV52.038.0D+14.0D+14.00.0%link
Strength In Numbers /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211374RV50.042.0D+8.0D+7.00.2%link
KFF2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211013RV45.035.0D+10.0D+9.00.5%link
Impact Research/ National Research Inc.The Wall Street Journal2026-09-16 – 2026-09-211500RV50.042.0D+8.0D+7.00.6%link
Echelon Insights2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211002LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.3%link
ActiVote2026-09-11 – 2026-09-211000LV53.047.0D+6.0D+6.00.0%link
Strength In Numbers /Verasight2026-09-16 – 2026-09-21LV52.042.0D+10.0D+10.00.1%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-17 – 2026-09-201277A37.029.0D+8.0D+6.50.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-17 – 2026-09-20979RV43.035.0D+8.0D+7.00.0%link
Morning Consult2026-09-18 – 2026-09-2018336LV50.043.0D+7.0D+7.00.1%link
Quantus Insights R2026-09-15 – 2026-09-181389LV50.042.0D+8.0D+10.00.1%link
John Zogby Strategies2026-09-15 – 2026-09-171007LV48.042.0D+6.0D+6.00.4%link
John Zogby Strategies2026-09-15 – 2026-09-171007LV46.040.0D+6.0D+6.00.2%link
CNN /SSRS2026-09-16 – 2026-09-17867RV49.041.0D+8.0D+7.00.2%link
The Winston GroupWinning the Issues R2026-09-12 – 2026-09-161000RV51.042.0D+9.0D+10.00.2%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-10 – 2026-09-161746LV49.041.0D+8.0D+10.00.0%link
Clarity Campaign Labs D2026-09-11 – 2026-09-161046LV50.043.0D+7.0D+5.00.1%link
Big Data Poll R2026-09-13 – 2026-09-152633LV48.037.0D+11.0D+13.00.2%link
Emerson College / RealClear Opinion ResearchUnited America Institute2026-09-12 – 2026-09-151500RV37.029.0D+8.0D+7.00.5%link
Big Data Poll R2026-09-13 – 2026-09-152947RV45.036.0D+9.0D+10.00.1%link
Hart Research Associates/ Public Opinion StrategiesNBC News2026-09-11 – 2026-09-151000RV50.045.0D+5.0D+4.00.3%link
Morning ConsultDeseret News & the Hinckley Institute of Politics2026-09-10 – 2026-09-152102RV46.043.0D+3.0D+2.00.0%link
RMG ResearchNapolitan News Service2026-09-08 – 2026-09-152000RV51.043.0D+8.0D+7.00.3%link
Marist UniversityNPR and PBS News2026-09-14 – 2026-09-151280RV53.041.0D+12.0D+11.00.2%link
The Rainey Center2026-09-10 – 2026-09-141004RV48.042.0D+6.0D+5.00.1%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141455RV44.039.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141051LV51.039.0D+12.0D+12.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141143A39.031.0D+8.0D+6.50.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-09-11 – 2026-09-14896RV44.037.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News2026-09-11 – 2026-09-141211RV51.044.0D+7.0D+6.00.1%link
New York Times / Siena College2026-09-08 – 2026-09-131503LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.5%link
Morning Consult2026-09-07 – 2026-09-13LV49.043.0D+6.0D+6.00.0%link
CBS News / YouGov2026-09-08 – 2026-09-111750LV54.046.0D+8.0D+8.00.2%link
ActiVote2026-08-31 – 2026-09-101000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.0%link
Marquette University Law School2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09864RV50.042.0D+8.0D+7.00.3%link
Catawba College / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-091201A38.028.0D+10.0D+8.50.4%link
Marquette University Law School2026-09-02 – 2026-09-09581LV54.041.0D+13.0D+13.00.1%link
Catawba College / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-09779LV49.038.0D+11.0D+11.00.1%link
Marquette University Law School2026-09-02 – 2026-09-091023A48.039.0D+9.0D+7.50.1%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-09-03 – 2026-09-091905LV47.042.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-081464RV42.035.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-09-04 – 2026-09-081015LV49.038.0D+11.0D+11.00.0%link
Public Religion Research InstituteAndrew Carnegie Foundation2026-08-20 – 2026-09-07RV43.036.0D+7.0D+6.00.2%link
Public Religion Research InstituteAndrew Carnegie Foundation2026-08-20 – 2026-09-075539A36.028.0D+8.0D+6.50.3%link
Quinnipiac University2026-09-03 – 2026-09-06970RV49.038.0D+11.0D+10.00.1%link
Morning Consult2026-09-04 – 2026-09-062203RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-28 – 2026-09-022178A46.041.0D+5.0D+3.50.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021914RV49.042.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021837RV51.044.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-28 – 2026-09-021837LV52.045.0D+7.0D+7.00.0%link
Cygnal R2026-09-01 – 2026-09-021500LV51.042.0D+9.0D+11.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-28 – 2026-08-311167A38.031.0D+7.0D+5.50.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-28 – 2026-08-31924RV43.038.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-08-28 – 2026-08-30LV49.051.0R+2.0R+2.00.0%link
Harvard / Harris Poll / HarrisX2026-08-28 – 2026-08-302100RV51.049.0D+2.0D+1.00.0%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-08-23 – 2026-08-302231LV41.036.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
UMass Amherst / YouGov2026-08-21 – 2026-08-261000A42.034.0D+8.0D+6.50.2%link
McLaughlin & Associates R2026-08-14 – 2026-08-241000LV48.043.0D+5.0D+7.00.0%link
ActiVote2026-08-10 – 2026-08-241000LV52.048.0D+4.0D+4.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171166A35.030.0D+5.0D+3.50.0%link
Echelon Insights2026-08-13 – 2026-08-171002LV50.045.0D+5.0D+5.00.0%link
Emerson College2026-08-16 – 2026-08-171000LV51.043.0D+8.0D+8.00.0%link
Reuters / Ipsos2026-08-14 – 2026-08-17876RV41.036.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
The Bullfinch Group2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171000RV42.037.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
The Bullfinch Group2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171200A45.040.0D+5.0D+3.50.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171449RV46.039.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-14 – 2026-08-171610A39.032.0D+7.0D+5.50.0%link
Noble Predictive Insights/ The Center Square2026-08-12 – 2026-08-162533RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.1%link
Morning Consult / Cato Institute2026-08-13 – 2026-08-164150RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.2%link
Morning Consult2026-08-10 – 2026-08-1629719RV46.042.0D+4.0D+3.00.0%link
Wave Polling /Verasight2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111591RV48.040.0D+8.0D+7.00.0%link
Wave Polling /Verasight2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111591RV50.043.0D+7.0D+6.00.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-07 – 2026-08-112152A48.041.0D+7.0D+5.50.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111913RV49.043.0D+6.0D+5.00.0%link
Focaldata/ Financial Times2026-08-07 – 2026-08-111857LV51.045.0D+6.0D+6.00.0%link
Angus Reid Global2026-08-08 – 2026-08-111525A45.036.0D+9.0D+7.50.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101558A40.032.0D+8.0D+6.50.0%link
The Economist / YouGov2026-08-07 – 2026-08-101419RV46.040.0D+6.0D+5.00.0%link
AlphaROCThe Independent Center2026-08-08 – 2026-08-101000A41.037.0D+4.0D+2.50.0%link
Morning Consult2026-08-03 – 2026-08-0929719RV47.042.0D+5.0D+4.00.0%link
ActiVote2026-07-29 – 2026-08-081000LV52.547.5D+5.0D+5.00.0%link
Cygnal R2026-08-06 – 2026-08-071500LV49.042.0D+7.0D+9.00.0%link
John Zogby Strategies2026-08-04 – 2026-08-05921LV51.040.0D+11.0D+11.00.0%link
Quantus Insights R2026-08-03 – 2026-08-041048LV49.043.0D+6.0D+8.00.0%link

NH-01 and NH-02 head-to-head polls

PollsterSponsorDistrictDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
Saint Anselm CollegeNH-012026-10-19 – 2026-10-20861LV46.042.0D+4.0D+4.081.6%link
University of New HampshireNH-012026-09-17 – 2026-09-21711LV46.042.0D+4.0D+4.018.4%link
Saint Anselm CollegeNH-022026-10-19 – 2026-10-20811LV54.038.0D+16.0D+16.079.9%link
University of New HampshireNH-022026-09-17 – 2026-09-21702LV56.035.0D+21.0D+21.018.4%link
Saint Anselm CollegeNH-022026-08-17 – 2026-08-18701LV50.035.0D+15.0D+15.01.6%link

New Hampshire voters' U.S. House preference

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
Saint Anselm College2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201672LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.092.4%link
The New York Times / Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22613LV52.043.0D+9.0D+9.07.6%link

Governor: Ayotte v. Warmington

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
University of New Hampshire2026-10-27 – 2026-10-312040LV48.048.0eveneven38.7%link
National Public Affairs R2026-10-25 – 2026-10-29800LV43.052.0R+9.0R+7.05.7%link
Rasmussen Reports R2026-10-20 – 2026-10-23970LV42.052.0R+10.0R+8.04.7%link
Saint Anselm College2026-10-19 – 2026-10-201672LV42.050.0R+8.0R+8.019.5%link
UMass Lowell / YouGov2026-10-02 – 2026-10-19600LV42.048.0R+6.0R+6.012.5%link
National Public Affairs R2026-10-08 – 2026-10-12600LV38.054.0R+16.0R+14.01.1%link
YouGov2026-09-28 – 2026-10-051520LV40.049.0R+9.0R+9.010.0%link
Saint Anselm CollegeAARP2026-09-28 – 2026-09-291042LV45.052.0R+7.0R+7.02.7%link
The New York Times / Siena University2026-09-15 – 2026-09-22613LV41.052.0R+11.0R+11.01.6%link
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211418LV43.047.0R+4.0R+4.02.2%link
co/efficient R2026-09-09 – 2026-09-11958LV34.055.0R+21.0R+19.00.8%link
University of New Hampshire2026-08-20 – 2026-08-241878LV39.049.0R+10.0R+10.00.3%link
Saint Anselm College2026-08-17 – 2026-08-181411LV38.049.0R+11.0R+11.00.2%link

New Hampshire legislative generic ballot (UNH)

PollsterSponsorDatesnPop.DRMarginAdjustedWeightSource
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211418LV49.039.0D+10.0D+10.066.7%link
University of New Hampshire2026-09-17 – 2026-09-211418LV51.041.0D+10.0D+10.033.3%link