Tipping-point seats
In each simulation the 24 Senate seats are sorted from most to least Democratic; the 13th is the seat that delivers the majority. The share of simulations in which a seat plays that role is its tipping-point probability.
State Senate
| Seat | Candidates | Tipping pt | P(Dem) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate District 12 | Carryl Roy v. Kevin Avard | 10.9% | 24% | R+5.2 |
| Senate District 7 | Rebecca Harned v. Dan Innis | 10.3% | 19% | R+6.5 |
| Senate District 18 | Leonard Bell v. Victoria Sullivan | 9.5% | 42% | R+1.5 |
| Senate District 16 | Dian McCarthy v. Keith Murphy | 9.0% | 13% | R+8.4 |
| Senate District 3 | Bobbi Boudman v. Mark McConkey | 8.4% | 11% | R+9.0 |
| Senate District 9 | Matthew McLaughlin v. Denise Ricciardi | 7.9% | 50% | even |
| Senate District 1 | Cathleen Fountain v. David Rochefort | 7.4% | 9% | R+9.8 |
| Senate District 8 | David Trumble v. Jim Creighton | 7.3% | 9% | R+10.0 |
| Senate District 11 | Shannon Chandley v. Tim McGough | 7.0% | 55% | D+1.0 |
| Senate District 2 | Kurt Webber v. Timothy Lang Sr. | 6.6% | 8% | R+10.6 |
| Senate District 17 | Robert Lawliss v. Howard Pearl | 5.1% | 6% | R+11.8 |
| Senate District 14 | Timothy Wyatt v. Sharon Carson | 4.6% | 5% | R+12.6 |
| Senate District 6 | — v. James Gray | 3.3% | 1% | R+14.1 |
| Senate District 19 | Michelle Moge v. Regina Birdsell | 1.8% | 2% | R+16.1 |
| Senate District 23 | David Childs v. William Gannon | 0.7% | 1% | R+19.2 |
| Senate District 22 | Chris Tardif v. Daryl Abbas | 0.2% | 0% | R+22.5 |
| Senate District 13 | Laura Telerski v. Daniel Paul | 0.1% | 98% | D+15.1 |
| Senate District 24 | Debra Altschiller v. Louis Gargiulo | 0.0% | 99% | D+16.4 |
| Senate District 20 | Patrick Long v. Patrick Binder | 0.0% | 99% | D+17.7 |
Seats ordered by expected margin
Where the majority line falls in the ordered list of Senate seats, and House districts ordered by expected party margin with their expected seat split.