Senate District 22
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by R (Daryl Abbas, running)
Forecast
100%
chance Daryl Abbas (R) wins
- Democrat
- Chris Tardif
- Republican
- Daryl Abbas
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+22.5 (90% range R+34.8 to R+10.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.2% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -22.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+19.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.2 |
| Final expected margin | R+22.6 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+20.1 | D+2.8 | -22.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+32.1 | R+9.5 | -22.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.7 | D+9.3 | -24.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+38.7 | R+15.8 | -22.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+14.2 | D+7.4 | -21.6 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+27.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -22.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+27.9
| R Daryl Abbas (i) | 22,892 | ✓ |
| D Wayne Haubner | 12,899 |
2022 — party margin R+25.2
| R Daryl Abbas | 16,622 | ✓ |
| D Wayne Haubner | 9,927 |