Senate District 23
Seacoast and Strafford · currently held by R (William Gannon, running)
Forecast
99%
chance William Gannon (R) wins
- Democrat
- David Childs
- Republican
- William Gannon
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+19.2 (90% range R+31.6 to R+7.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.7% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+16.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+19.3 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+16.5 | D+2.8 | -19.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+27.4 | R+9.5 | -17.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+11.4 | D+9.3 | -20.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.7 | R+15.8 | -17.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+11.3 | D+7.4 | -18.6 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+24.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -19.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+24.8
| R Bill Gannon (i) | 22,670 | ✓ |
| D Brenda Oldak | 13,648 |
2022 — party margin R+20.9
| R Bill Gannon (i) | 16,902 | ✓ |
| D Brenda Oldak | 11,064 |