Senate District 17
Concord and Merrimack Valley · currently held by R (Howard Pearl, running)
Forecast
94%
chance Howard Pearl (R) wins
- Democrat
- Robert Lawliss
- Republican
- Howard Pearl
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+11.8 (90% range R+23.9 to D+0.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 5.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 5.1% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.5 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+10.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+11.8 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+13.2 | D+2.8 | -16.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+23.3 | R+9.5 | -13.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.4 | D+9.3 | -14.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.4 | R+15.8 | -12.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.5 | D+7.4 | -15.9 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+15.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -9.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+15.5
| R Howard Pearl (i) | 19,762 | ✓ |
| D Kelly Roberts | 14,456 |
2022 — party margin R+13.6
| R Howard Pearl | 14,878 | ✓ |
| D Christine M. Tappan | 11,311 |