Senate District 14
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by R (Sharon Carson, running)
Forecast
95%
chance Sharon Carson (R) wins
- Democrat
- Timothy Wyatt
- Republican
- Sharon Carson
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+12.6 (90% range R+24.9 to R+0.3)
- Chance of flipping
- 4.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 4.6% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -13.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+10.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.5 |
| Final expected margin | R+12.6 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+8.8 | D+2.8 | -11.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+24.6 | R+9.5 | -15.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.2 | D+9.3 | -14.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+32.6 | R+15.8 | -16.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+5.7 | D+7.4 | -13.0 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+17.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -12.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+17.6
| R Sharon M. Carson (i) | 19,429 | ✓ |
| D Kara Roy | 13,611 |
2022 — party margin R+18.2
| R Sharon M. Carson (i) | 14,631 | ✓ |
| D John Robinson | 10,133 |