Senate District 11
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by R (Tim McGough, running)
Forecast
55%
chance Shannon Chandley (D) wins
- Democrat
- Shannon Chandley
- Republican
- Tim McGough
- Rating
- Tilt D
- Expected margin
- D+1.0 (90% range R+11.3 to D+13.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 55.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 7.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +0.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+3.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.9 |
| Final expected margin | D+1.0 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+6.1 | D+2.8 | +3.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+10.8 | R+9.5 | -1.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+10.9 | D+9.3 | +1.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.8 | R+15.8 | -1.1 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+6.6 | D+7.4 | -0.8 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+1.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean -2.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+1.9
| R Tim McGough | 18,440 | ✓ |
| D Shannon E. Chandley (i) | 17,767 |
2022 — party margin D+2.6
| D Shannon E. Chandley | 14,320 | ✓ |
| R Gary L. Daniels (i) | 13,591 |