Senate District 6
Seacoast and Strafford · currently held by R (James Gray, running) · uncontested
Forecast
99%
chance James Gray (R) wins
- Democrat
- — (no candidate)
- Republican
- James Gray
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+14.1 (90% range R+26.4 to R+1.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 3.3% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -14.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+11.3 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+14.2 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts. Uncontested: probability fixed at 99.5% for the sole major-party candidate.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.3 | D+2.8 | -14.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+20.3 | R+9.5 | -10.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+6.3 | D+9.3 | -15.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+30.8 | R+15.8 | -15.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+8.8 | D+7.4 | -16.2 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+19.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -13.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+19.6
| R James P. Gray (i) | 18,561 | ✓ |
| D John Ceskavich | 12,483 |
2022 — party margin R+11.6
| R James P. Gray (i) | 13,167 | ✓ |
| D Ruth Larson | 10,434 |