Senate District 20
Greater Manchester · currently held by D (Patrick Long, running)
Forecast
99%
chance Patrick Long (D) wins
- Democrat
- Patrick Long
- Republican
- Patrick Binder
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+17.7 (90% range D+5.3 to D+29.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +10.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+13.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.0 |
| Final expected margin | D+17.7 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.7 | D+2.8 | +7.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+0.2 | R+9.5 | +9.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+19.9 | D+9.3 | +10.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+7.9 | R+15.8 | +7.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+18.4 | D+7.4 | +11.0 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+12.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +14.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+12.2
| D Pat Long | 13,159 | ✓ |
| R Brittany Ping | 10,290 |
2022 — party margin D+15.8
| D Lou D'Allesandro (i) | 9,859 | ✓ |
| R Richard H. Girard | 7,172 |