Senate District 3
Lakes Region · currently held by R (Mark McConkey, running)
Forecast
89%
chance Mark McConkey (R) wins
- Democrat
- Bobbi Boudman
- Republican
- Mark McConkey
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+9.0 (90% range R+21.2 to D+3.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 11.1%
- Tipping-point chance
- 8.4% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+6.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+9.0 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+4.6 | D+2.8 | -7.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+16.7 | R+9.5 | -7.1 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+0.3 | D+9.3 | -9.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+26.2 | R+15.8 | -10.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+0.8 | D+7.4 | -8.2 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+13.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -10.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+13.4
| R Mark McConkey | 21,058 | ✓ |
| D Bill Marsh | 16,066 |
2022 — party margin R+17.0
| R Jeb Bradley | 17,336 | ✓ |
| D Bill Marsh | 12,309 |