Senate District 8
Upper Valley · currently held by R · open seat
Forecast
91%
chance Jim Creighton (R) wins
- Democrat
- David Trumble
- Republican
- Jim Creighton
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+10.0 (90% range R+22.4 to D+2.5)
- Chance of flipping
- 9.3%
- Tipping-point chance
- 7.3% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+10.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.0 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.2 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.6 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+11.7 | D+2.8 | -14.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+20.3 | R+9.5 | -10.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.0 | D+9.3 | -14.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+27.6 | R+15.8 | -11.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.3 | D+7.4 | -14.7 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+16.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -11.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+16.7
| R Ruth Ward (i) | 18,463 | ✓ |
| D David Trumble | 13,178 |
2022 — party margin R+14.5
| R Ruth Ward (i) | 14,080 | ✓ |
| D Charlene Marcotte Lovett | 10,520 |