Senate District 18
Greater Manchester · currently held by R (Victoria Sullivan, running)
Forecast
58%
chance Victoria Sullivan (R) wins
- Democrat
- Leonard Bell
- Republican
- Victoria Sullivan
- Rating
- Tilt R
- Expected margin
- R+1.5 (90% range R+13.7 to D+10.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 42.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 9.5% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -3.7 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+0.8 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.3 |
| Final expected margin | R+1.5 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+1.4 | D+2.8 | -4.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+13.5 | R+9.5 | -4.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+6.8 | D+9.3 | -2.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+23.0 | R+15.8 | -7.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+5.0 | D+7.4 | -2.4 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+2.9 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean -3.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+2.9
| R Victoria Sullivan | 13,289 | ✓ |
| D Donna M. Soucy (i) | 12,541 |
2022 — party margin D+4.8
| D Donna M. Soucy (i) | 9,920 | ✓ |
| R George A. Lambert | 9,015 |