Senate District 12
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by R (Kevin Avard, running)
Forecast
76%
chance Kevin Avard (R) wins
- Democrat
- Carryl Roy
- Republican
- Kevin Avard
- Rating
- Lean R
- Expected margin
- R+5.2 (90% range R+17.4 to D+7.0)
- Chance of flipping
- 23.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 10.9% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -4.0 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+1.1 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+5.2 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+0.7 | D+2.8 | -2.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+15.3 | R+9.5 | -5.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+5.7 | D+9.3 | -3.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+18.7 | R+15.8 | -2.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.9 | D+7.4 | -2.5 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+11.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -6.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+11.8
| R Kevin A. Avard (i) | 19,841 | ✓ |
| D Ben Ming | 15,643 |
2022 — party margin R+2.5
| R Kevin A. Avard | 14,314 | ✓ |
| D Melanie Levesque | 13,626 |