Senate District 1
North Country · currently held by R (David Rochefort, running)
Forecast
91%
chance David Rochefort (R) wins
- Democrat
- Cathleen Fountain
- Republican
- David Rochefort
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+9.8 (90% range R+22.1 to D+2.4)
- Chance of flipping
- 9.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 7.4% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -10.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+7.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.8 |
| Final expected margin | R+9.9 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.0 | D+2.8 | -11.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+18.8 | R+9.5 | -9.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+0.4 | D+9.3 | -9.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+26.6 | R+15.8 | -10.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+2.1 | D+7.4 | -9.4 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+13.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -11.1, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+13.7
| R David Rochefort | 17,613 | ✓ |
| D Rusty Talbot | 13,371 |
2022 — party margin R+9.4
| R Carrie L. Gendreau | 13,112 | ✓ |
| D Edith Tucker | 10,855 |