Senate District 24
Seacoast and Strafford · currently held by D (Debra Altschiller, running)
Forecast
99%
chance Debra Altschiller (D) wins
- Democrat
- Debra Altschiller
- Republican
- Louis Gargiulo
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+16.4 (90% range D+4.2 to D+28.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.5%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +11.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+14.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -1.3 |
| Final expected margin | D+16.4 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+18.1 | D+2.8 | +15.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+1.0 | R+9.5 | +10.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+20.1 | D+9.3 | +10.7 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+3.3 | R+15.8 | +12.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+20.0 | D+7.4 | +12.6 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+9.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean +9.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+9.5
| D Debra Altschiller (i) | 20,497 | ✓ |
| R Patrick Abrami | 16,926 |
2022 — party margin D+11.4
| D Debra Altschiller | 17,969 | ✓ |
| R Lou Gargiulo | 14,286 |