Senate District 7
Concord and Merrimack Valley · currently held by R (Dan Innis, running)
Forecast
81%
chance Dan Innis (R) wins
- Democrat
- Rebecca Harned
- Republican
- Dan Innis
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+6.5 (90% range R+18.7 to D+5.7)
- Chance of flipping
- 18.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 10.3% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -7.6 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+4.6 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +1.1 |
| Final expected margin | R+6.6 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+6.9 | D+2.8 | -9.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+16.0 | R+9.5 | -6.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+1.4 | D+9.3 | -8.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+21.8 | R+15.8 | -6.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+2.3 | D+7.4 | -9.6 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+11.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -5.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+11.0
| R Daniel Innis (i) | 17,888 | ✓ |
| D Stu Green | 14,337 |
2022 — party margin R+9.2
| R Daniel E. Innis | 13,413 | ✓ |
| D Richard A. Lobban | 11,146 |