Senate District 13
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by D · open seat
Forecast
98%
chance Laura Telerski (D) wins
- Democrat
- Laura Telerski
- Republican
- Daniel Paul
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+15.1 (90% range D+2.6 to D+27.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 2.4%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.1% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +12.2 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+15.1 |
| Final expected margin | D+15.1 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.2 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.6 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+13.7 | D+2.8 | +10.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+0.2 | R+9.5 | +9.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+21.8 | D+9.3 | +12.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+3.9 | R+15.8 | +11.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+22.8 | D+7.4 | +15.4 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+13.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-3.0) → lean +13.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+13.6
| D Cindy Rosenwald (i) | 14,334 | ✓ |
| R Stephen Scaer | 10,913 |
2022 — party margin D+17.6
| D Cindy Rosenwald (i) | 10,445 | ✓ |
| R Stephen Scaer | 7,319 |