Senate District 9
Greater Manchester · currently held by R (Denise Ricciardi, running)
Forecast
50%
chance Matthew McLaughlin (D) wins
- Democrat
- Matthew McLaughlin
- Republican
- Denise Ricciardi
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Expected margin
- even (90% range R+12.2 to D+12.2)
- Chance of flipping
- 50.2%
- Tipping-point chance
- 7.9% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -2.4 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+0.5 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +2.5 |
| Final expected margin | even |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+0.9 | D+2.8 | -3.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+15.0 | R+9.5 | -5.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+4.4 | D+9.3 | -4.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+21.3 | R+15.8 | -5.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+2.6 | D+7.4 | -4.8 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+3.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean +2.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+3.1
| R Denise Ricciardi (i) | 17,235 | ✓ |
| D Matthew McLaughlin | 16,211 |
2022 — party margin R+4.5
| R Denise Ricciardi (i) | 13,687 | ✓ |
| D Matthew McLaughlin | 12,510 |