Senate District 19
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · currently held by R (Regina Birdsell, running)
Forecast
98%
chance Regina Birdsell (R) wins
- Democrat
- Michelle Moge
- Republican
- Regina Birdsell
- Rating
- Safe R
- Expected margin
- R+16.1 (90% range R+28.4 to R+3.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 1.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 1.8% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -16.1 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+13.2 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.0 |
| Final expected margin | R+16.1 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+13.2 | D+2.8 | -16.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+25.1 | R+9.5 | -15.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+7.1 | D+9.3 | -16.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.5 | R+15.8 | -17.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.9 | D+7.4 | -15.3 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+21.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -16.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+21.7
| R Regina M. Birdsell (i) | 19,505 | ✓ |
| D Michelle Moge | 12,556 |
2022 — uncontested
| R Regina Birdsell (i) | 15,143 | ✓ |