Senate District 16
Greater Manchester · currently held by R (Keith Murphy, running)
Forecast
87%
chance Keith Murphy (R) wins
- Democrat
- Dian McCarthy
- Republican
- Keith Murphy
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+8.4 (90% range R+20.7 to D+3.9)
- Chance of flipping
- 12.7%
- Tipping-point chance
- 9.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -8.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+6.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+8.4 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+5.4 | D+2.8 | -8.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+18.9 | R+9.5 | -9.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+0.2 | D+9.3 | -9.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.2 | R+15.8 | -12.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+3.1 | D+7.4 | -10.5 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+13.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -7.8, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+13.4
| R Keith Murphy (i) | 18,435 | ✓ |
| D Michael York | 14,080 |
2022 — party margin R+6.8
| R Keith Murphy | 13,494 | ✓ |
| D June Trisciani | 11,783 |