Senate District 2
Lakes Region · currently held by R (Timothy Lang Sr., running)
Forecast
92%
chance Timothy Lang Sr. (R) wins
- Democrat
- Kurt Webber
- Republican
- Timothy Lang Sr.
- Rating
- Likely R
- Expected margin
- R+10.6 (90% range R+22.7 to D+1.6)
- Chance of flipping
- 7.6%
- Tipping-point chance
- 6.6% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -9.9 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | R+7.0 |
| + Incumbency advantage | -3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | -0.6 |
| Final expected margin | R+10.5 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+5.2 | D+2.8 | -8.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+17.4 | R+9.5 | -7.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+1.3 | D+9.3 | -10.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+29.5 | R+15.8 | -13.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+2.6 | D+7.4 | -10.0 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): R+16.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+3.0) → lean -11.0, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin R+16.7
| R Timothy Lang (i) | 20,117 | ✓ |
| D Carlos Cardona | 14,372 |
2022 — party margin R+12.0
| R Timothy Lang | 15,321 | ✓ |
| D Kate Miller | 12,038 |