House District Cheshire 15 (floterial)
Monadnock · 2 seats · Chesterfield, Hinsdale, Keene Ward 1, Keene Ward 3, Keene Ward 4, Keene Ward 5, Surry, Walpole, Westmoreland · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+27.6 (90% range D+16.5 to D+38.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Samantha Jacobs (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Nicholas Germana (incumbent) | D | 100% |
| Matt Roach | R | 0% |
| Becky Shields | R | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+27.6 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+23.9 | D+2.8 | +21.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+14.4 | R+9.5 | +24.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+34.2 | D+9.3 | +24.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+13.4 | R+15.8 | +29.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+30.5 | D+7.4 | +23.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+25.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +27.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+25.0
| D Samantha Jacobs | 10,363 | ✓ |
| D Nicholas Germana | 9,927 | ✓ |
| R John W. Winter | 6,142 | |
| R Jerry L. Sickels | 6,041 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+30.4
| D Toll (i) | 8,485 | ✓ |
| D Monteil | 8,022 | ✓ |
| R Schmitt | 4,647 | |
| R Mirzoeff | 4,171 |