House District Rockingham 13
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 10 seats · Derry
Forecast
1.5 expected Democratic seats of 10
- Held today
- 0 D, 10 R
- On the ballot
- 10 Democrats, 10 Republicans for 10 seats
- District party margin
- R+8.3 (90% range R+19.2 to D+2.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 57%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jodi Nelson (incumbent) | R | 90% |
| David Love (incumbent) | R | 90% |
| John Potucek (incumbent) | R | 89% |
| Erica Layon (incumbent) | R | 89% |
| Richard Tripp (incumbent) | R | 89% |
| Charles Foote (incumbent) | R | 89% |
| Michael Appleton | R | 78% |
| Anthony Henry | R | 78% |
| Brandon Bach | R | 78% |
| Brian Chirichiello | R | 77% |
| Haley Carreau | D | 15% |
| Kristine Trow | D | 15% |
| Thomas Wood | D | 15% |
| Paula Mahon d'Entremont | D | 15% |
| Thomas Bosia | D | 15% |
| Jim Marshall | D | 15% |
| David Provencher | D | 15% |
| Jamie Carreau | D | 15% |
| Hollie Hesse | D | 15% |
| Matt Glavin | D | 15% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -11.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+8.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 10 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+12.0 | D+2.8 | -14.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+21.2 | R+9.5 | -11.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.1 | D+9.3 | -13.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+27.6 | R+15.8 | -11.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+6.8 | D+7.4 | -14.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+10.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.2) → lean -5.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 10 of 10 · party margin R+10.3
| R David Love (i) | 8,646 | ✓ |
| R Jodi Nelson (i) | 8,555 | ✓ |
| R Erica Layon (i) | 8,283 | ✓ |
| R Phyllis Katsakiores (i) | 8,123 | ✓ |
| R Charles Foote (i) | 7,983 | ✓ |
| R John Potucek (i) | 7,942 | ✓ |
| R Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien | 7,905 | ✓ |
| R Stephen Pearson (i) | 7,889 | ✓ |
| R David E. Milz (i) | 7,844 | ✓ |
| R Richard Tripp (i) | 7,831 | ✓ |
| D Elle Gallo | 6,925 | |
| D Johnathan West | 6,780 | |
| D Jamie Carreau | 6,677 | |
| D Frances Keenan | 6,402 | |
| D Sanjeev Lath | 6,174 |
2022 — D 0, R 10 of 10 · party margin R+9.8
| R Nelson (i) | 5,950 | ✓ |
| R Love (i) | 5,682 | ✓ |
| R Katsakiores (i) | 5,626 | ✓ |
| R Foote | 5,592 | ✓ |
| R O'Brien (i) | 5,586 | ✓ |
| R Tripp (i) | 5,537 | ✓ |
| R Potucek (i) | 5,530 | ✓ |
| R Pearson (i) | 5,477 | ✓ |
| R Layon (i) | 5,364 | ✓ |
| R Milz (i) | 5,340 | ✓ |
| D Greenberg | 4,868 | |
| D Gallo | 4,851 | |
| D Cunningham | 4,771 | |
| D Gaskill | 4,652 | |
| D Moge | 4,614 | |
| D West | 4,614 | |
| D Dattner-Levy | 4,503 | |
| D Doolittle | 4,497 | |
| D Mogill | 4,255 | |
| D Evdokimov | 4,076 |