House District Merrimack 3

Lakes Region · 2 seats · Franklin Ward 1, Franklin Ward 2, Franklin Ward 3

Forecast

0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2

Held today: 0 D, 2 R
On the ballot: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
District party margin: R+11.7 (90% range R+22.6 to R+0.8)
Chance Democrats gain seats here: 16%
Chance Democrats lose seats here: 0%
Rating (seat share): Likely R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Mike Visconti	R	91%
Werner Horn	R	91%
Vivian Hall	D	9%
Scott Burns	D	9%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-14.6
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+11.7

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Inputs

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+16.3	D+2.8	-19.1	0.4
2024 Governor	R+21.0	R+9.5	-11.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+7.3	D+9.3	-16.7	0.2
2022 Governor	R+31.7	R+15.8	-15.9	0.1
2020 President	R+11.7	D+7.4	-19.0	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+11.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -8.6, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+11.2

R Bryan Morse	2,178	✓
R Ernesto L. Gonzalez	2,009	✓
D Scott A. Burns	1,811
D Justine Hoppe	1,531

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+13.9

R Testerman (i)	1,584	✓
R Mason (i)	1,430	✓
D Burns	1,253
D Kovacs	1,026