House District Hillsborough 18

Forecast

Held today

1 D, 1 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 1 Republican for 2 seats

District party margin

D+8.8 (90% range R+2.1 to D+19.6)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

74%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Likely D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Jessica Grill (incumbent)	D	93%
Jim Normand	D	81%
Steven Kesselring (incumbent)	R	26%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+5.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+8.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+9.7	D+2.8	+6.9	0.4
2024 Governor	R+4.1	R+9.5	+5.5	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+16.9	D+9.3	+7.6	0.2
2022 Governor	R+12.5	R+15.8	+3.3	0.1
2020 President	D+14.5	D+7.4	+7.2	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+4.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +4.4, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+4.3

D Jessica Grill (i)	2,295	✓
R Steven Kesselring	2,048	✓
D Julie Smith (i)	2,041
R Juliet Belle DiPietro	1,934

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+10.3

D Grill	1,719	✓
D Smith (i)	1,665	✓
R Marston (i)	1,458
R Whitlock	1,295