House District Cheshire 9
Monadnock · 1 seat · Alstead, Gilsum, Marlow, Stoddard
Forecast
0.7 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+3.4 (90% range R+7.6 to D+14.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 66%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| James Gruber (incumbent) | D | 66% |
| Richard Nalevanko (incumbent) | R | 34% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +0.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+3.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.5 | D+2.8 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+6.7 | R+9.5 | +2.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+9.8 | D+9.3 | +0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+9.0 | R+15.8 | +6.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+8.1 | D+7.4 | +0.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+1.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean -1.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+1.3
| R Rich Nalevanko | 1,524 | ✓ |
| D Daniel Adams Eaton (i) | 1,485 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+5.4
| D Eaton (i) | 1,255 | ✓ |
| R Nalevanko | 1,127 |