House District Sullivan 3
Upper Valley · 3 seats · Charlestown, Newport, Unity
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+13.2 (90% range R+24.2 to R+2.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 10%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Skip Rollins (incumbent) | R | 96% |
| Walter Spilsbury (incumbent) | R | 96% |
| Steven Smith (incumbent) | R | 96% |
| Lisa DeBartolomao | D | 4% |
| Jeffrey Kessler | D | 4% |
| Timothy Fitzpatrick | D | 4% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -16.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+13.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+17.7 | D+2.8 | -20.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+22.9 | R+9.5 | -13.4 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+9.3 | D+9.3 | -18.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+33.1 | R+15.8 | -17.4 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+11.3 | D+7.4 | -18.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+15.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -10.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+15.7
| R Skip Rollins (i) | 3,936 | ✓ |
| R Steven Smith (i) | 3,508 | ✓ |
| R Walter Spilsbury (i) | 3,130 | ✓ |
| D Nikki Murphy | 2,566 |
2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+19.3
| R Rollins (i) | 2,684 | ✓ |
| R Smith (i) | 2,532 | ✓ |
| R Spilsbury (i) | 2,199 | ✓ |
| D Irwin | 1,874 | |
| D Streeter | 1,628 | |
| D Wadensten | 1,512 |