House District Hillsborough 6
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 3
Forecast
2.9 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 2 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+16.2 (90% range D+5.2 to D+27.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 92%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 1%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lee Ann Kluger (incumbent) | D | 99% |
| Adam Thompson | D | 96% |
| Michele Roussel Buckley | D | 96% |
| Doris Hohensee | R | 3% |
| Daniel Richardson | R | 3% |
| Elena Pavlou | R | 3% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +13.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+16.2 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+15.5 | D+2.8 | +12.7 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+1.3 | R+9.5 | +10.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+23.3 | D+9.3 | +14.0 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+1.5 | R+15.8 | +14.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+21.7 | D+7.4 | +14.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+12.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +13.7, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+12.7
| D Lee Ann Kluger | 2,322 | ✓ |
| D Suzanne Vail (i) | 2,251 | ✓ |
| D Carry Spier (i) | 2,195 | ✓ |
| R Paul R. Berube | 1,923 | |
| R Daniel Richardson | 1,687 | |
| R Doris Hohensee | 1,634 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+16.7
| D Dutzy (i) | 1,731 | ✓ |
| D Vail (i) | 1,725 | ✓ |
| D Spier | 1,708 | ✓ |
| R Canaway | 1,257 | |
| R Berube | 1,240 | |
| R Schoneman | 1,188 |