House District Strafford 1
Seacoast and Strafford · 2 seats · Farmington
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+16.5 (90% range R+27.3 to R+5.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 6%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Packy Campbell | R | 97% |
| Andy Dow | R | 97% |
| Jimmy Bourque | D | 3% |
| Brian Beaverstock | D | 3% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -19.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+16.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+22.7 | D+2.8 | -25.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+26.3 | R+9.5 | -16.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.0 | D+9.3 | -23.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+34.3 | R+15.8 | -18.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+18.9 | D+7.4 | -26.2 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+13.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -10.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+13.0
| R Sue DeLemus | 1,961 | ✓ |
| R Robley Hall | 1,640 | ✓ |
| D Manny Krasner | 1,532 | |
| D Fred Pitman | 1,240 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+9.7
| R Horgan (i) | 1,259 | ✓ |
| R Pitre (i) | 1,253 | ✓ |
| D Krasner | 1,142 | |
| D Howard | 925 |