House District Rockingham 24

Forecast

Held today

1 D, 0 R, 1 vacant

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+15.3 (90% range D+4.3 to D+26.3)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

94%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

1%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Dennis Malloy (incumbent)	D	98%
Michael Moody	D	95%
Marilyn Page	R	3%
Kevin Szmyd	R	3%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+12.4
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+15.3

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+18.5	D+2.8	+15.6	0.4
2024 Governor	R+1.5	R+9.5	+8.1	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+19.4	D+9.3	+10.1	0.2
2022 Governor	R+4.0	R+15.8	+11.8	0.1
2020 President	D+23.7	D+7.4	+16.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+10.5 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +10.7, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+10.5

D Jaci Grote (i)	3,479	✓
D Dennis Malloy (i)	3,361	✓
R Marilyn Page	2,934
R Kevin Szmyd	2,603
I Lyn Leddy	889

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+13.6

D Malloy (i)	3,243	✓
D Grote (i)	3,169	✓
R Page	2,541
R Jones	2,340