Senate District 15
Concord and Merrimack Valley · currently held by D (Tara Reardon, running)
Forecast
100%
chance Tara Reardon (D) wins
- Democrat
- Tara Reardon
- Republican
- Dennis Blankenbeker
- Rating
- Safe D
- Expected margin
- D+31.6 (90% range D+19.2 to D+43.8)
- Chance of flipping
- 0.0%
- Tipping-point chance
- 0.0% (chance this seat is the 13th most Democratic, deciding control)
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +24.8 |
| = Fundamentals before candidates | D+27.7 |
| + Incumbency advantage | +3.0 |
| + Incumbent's past over-performance (shrunk) | +0.9 |
| Final expected margin | D+31.6 |
No public poll of this district exists; the forecast is fundamentals only. District-level error SD 6.0 pts; total with statewide and regional error ≈ 7.5 pts.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+25.6 | D+2.8 | +22.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+12.4 | R+9.5 | +21.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+33.9 | D+9.3 | +24.5 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+8.6 | R+15.8 | +24.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+30.0 | D+7.4 | +22.6 | 0.15 |
Last Senate result (2024): D+26.0 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean +28.6, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district (current lines)
2024 — party margin D+26.0
| D Tara Reardon | 20,272 | ✓ |
| R Pamela Ean | 11,912 |
2022 — party margin D+29.4
| D Becky Whitley (i) | 16,625 | ✓ |
| R Linda Rae Banfill | 9,071 |