House District Rockingham 4
Seacoast and Strafford · 3 seats · Raymond
Forecast
0.0 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 0 D, 3 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats
- District party margin
- R+22.7 (90% range R+33.7 to R+11.8)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 1%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cindy Bennett (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Mike Drago (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Brian Nadeau (incumbent) | R | 100% |
| Art Hunt | D | 0% |
| Christine Pierce | D | 0% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -25.7 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+22.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+23.5 | D+2.8 | -26.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+33.1 | R+9.5 | -23.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+18.2 | D+9.3 | -27.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+38.6 | R+15.8 | -22.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+19.3 | D+7.4 | -26.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+28.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+0.8) → lean -25.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+28.7
| R Mike Drago (i) | 3,574 | ✓ |
| R Brian Nadeau | 3,440 | ✓ |
| R Cindy L. Bennett | 3,389 | ✓ |
| D Christopher Lee | 1,982 | |
| D David K. Bodman | 1,928 | |
| D Art Hunt | 1,857 |
2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+25.4
| R Pratt (i) | 2,748 | ✓ |
| R Cahill | 2,508 | ✓ |
| R Drago | 2,353 | ✓ |
| D Couture | 1,593 | |
| D DiTommaso | 1,513 | |
| D Garnham | 1,423 |