House District Rockingham 12

Forecast

Held today

2 D, 0 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+17.9 (90% range D+7.0 to D+28.7)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

2%

Rating (seat share)

Safe D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Allison Knab (incumbent)	D	99%
Zoe Manos (incumbent)	D	99%
James Scamman	R	1%
Patrick Abrami	R	1%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+14.9
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+17.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+20.5	D+2.8	+17.7	0.4
2024 Governor	D+0.5	R+9.5	+10.1	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+22.7	D+9.3	+13.4	0.2
2022 Governor	R+2.7	R+15.8	+13.0	0.1
2020 President	D+22.0	D+7.4	+14.6	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+15.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +15.4, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+15.2

D Allison Knab (i)	3,046	✓
D Zoe R. Manos (i)	2,906	✓
R James Scamman	2,326
R Jessica Kliskey	2,053

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+12.3

D Knab	2,503	✓
D Manos	2,425	✓
R Abrami (i)	2,100
R Ward	1,748