House District Hillsborough 14

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+14.8 (90% range R+25.8 to R+4.0)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

4%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Ray Peeples (incumbent)	R	98%
Richard Lascelles (incumbent)	R	98%
Paula Paciulan	D	2%
Ray Ealy	D	2%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-17.7
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+14.8

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+10.8	D+2.8	-13.6	0.4
2024 Governor	R+26.5	R+9.5	-17.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+5.6	D+9.3	-14.9	0.2
2022 Governor	R+33.7	R+15.8	-17.9	0.1
2020 President	R+6.1	D+7.4	-13.5	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+28.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -24.5, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+28.4

R Richard W. Lascelles (i)	3,111	✓
R Raymond C. Peeples Jr.	3,060	✓
D Michael Aniskovich	1,920
D Mahendra Bakshi	1,525

2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+18.3

R Lascelles (i)	2,358	✓
R Boehm (i)	2,090	✓
D Stanieich-Burke	1,702
D Bakshi	1,370