House District Hillsborough 40 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 4 seats · Manchester Ward 1, Manchester Ward 3, Manchester Ward 10, Manchester Ward 11, Manchester Ward 12 · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
- Held today
- 3 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 4 Democrats, 4 Republicans for 4 seats
- District party margin
- D+12.8 (90% range D+1.9 to D+23.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 83%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 4%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Erin Kerwin (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Trinidad Tellez (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Mark MacKenzie (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Robert Richard-Snipes | D | 90% |
| Carlos Gonzalez | R | 6% |
| Robert Rivera | R | 6% |
| Bill O'Brien | R | 6% |
| Lynne Cumming | R | 6% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +9.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+12.8 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 4 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+12.4 | D+2.8 | +9.6 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+0.1 | R+9.5 | +9.7 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+21.2 | D+9.3 | +11.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+8.3 | R+15.8 | +7.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+18.9 | D+7.4 | +11.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+7.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +9.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+7.8
| D Erin Kerwin | 9,911 | ✓ |
| D Mark S. MacKenzie (i) | 9,777 | ✓ |
| D Trinidad Tellez (i) | 9,135 | ✓ |
| D Suraj Budathoki | 8,815 | ✓ |
| R Carlos Gonzalez | 8,460 | |
| R Alex Krantz | 7,992 | |
| R Carla Gericke | 7,889 | |
| R Andre Rosa | 7,821 |
2022 — D 4, R 0 of 4 · party margin D+14.0
| D Mackenzie | 7,984 | ✓ |
| D Wilhelm (i) | 7,410 | ✓ |
| D Tellez | 7,286 | ✓ |
| D Ford | 7,107 | ✓ |
| R Gonzalez | 6,136 | |
| R Fraser | 5,806 | |
| R Brasill | 5,475 | |
| R Yaakov | 5,073 |