House District Grafton 4
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Ellsworth, Thornton, Waterville Valley
Forecast
0.9 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+9.1 (90% range R+1.8 to D+20.0)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 8%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Heather Baldwin (incumbent) | D | 92% |
| David Rardin | R | 8% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +6.2 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+9.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+10.7 | D+2.8 | +7.9 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+5.4 | R+9.5 | +4.2 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+12.4 | D+9.3 | +3.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+16.8 | R+15.8 | -1.0 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+16.1 | D+7.4 | +8.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+7.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +7.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+7.3
| D Heather P. Baldwin (i) | 1,211 | ✓ |
| R Steven Babin | 1,046 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+7.5
| D Baldwin | 988 | ✓ |
| R Babin | 851 |