House District Hillsborough 24
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Manchester Ward 4
Forecast
1.7 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- D+9.7 (90% range R+1.3 to D+20.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 77%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 4%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Margeson | D | 87% |
| Frank Anthony | D | 86% |
| Shuvom Ghose | R | 13% |
| Paul LaFerriere | R | 13% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +6.8 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+9.7 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+8.9 | D+2.8 | +6.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+0.7 | R+9.5 | +10.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+18.4 | D+9.3 | +9.1 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.6 | R+15.8 | +10.2 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+18.4 | D+7.4 | +11.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+2.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +2.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+2.7
| D Chris Herbert (i) | 1,763 | ✓ |
| D Donald J. Bouchard (i) | 1,662 | ✓ |
| R Dennis M. Demars | 1,621 |
2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+16.5
| D Herbert (i) | 1,290 | ✓ |
| D Bouchard (i) | 1,229 | ✓ |
| R Mathieu | 982 | |
| R Hagala | 824 |