House District Merrimack 6
Concord and Merrimack Valley · 1 seat · Sutton, Wilmot
Forecast
1.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+15.3 (90% range D+4.4 to D+26.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 2%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Schamberg (incumbent) | D | 98% |
| Paul Little | R | 2% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +12.4 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+15.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+14.2 | D+2.8 | +11.4 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+1.3 | R+9.5 | +10.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.6 | D+9.3 | +8.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+5.0 | R+15.8 | +10.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+17.4 | D+7.4 | +10.0 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+16.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +16.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+16.8
| D Tom Schamberg (i) | 1,366 | ✓ |
| R Victor Prieto | 973 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+17.7
| D Schamberg (i) | 1,137 | ✓ |
| R Stanton | 795 |