House District Belknap 1
Lakes Region · 1 seat · Center Harbor, New Hampton
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+8.1 (90% range R+19.0 to D+2.7)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 10%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Ploszaj (incumbent) | R | 90% |
| Amber Schaefer | D | 10% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -11.0 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+8.1 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+7.3 | D+2.8 | -10.1 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+18.6 | R+9.5 | -9.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+5.5 | D+9.3 | -14.9 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+28.0 | R+15.8 | -12.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+6.1 | D+7.4 | -13.5 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+14.6 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -9.5, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+14.6
| R Tom Ploszaj (i) | 1,342 | ✓ |
| D David Rose | 1,000 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · uncontested
| R Ploszaj (i) | 1,053 | ✓ |
| R Kavanagh | 892 |