House District Cheshire 5
Monadnock · 1 seat · Surry, Walpole
Forecast
1.0 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+19.0 (90% range D+8.0 to D+29.9)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 1%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lucy McVitty Weber (incumbent) | D | 99% |
| William Sommer | R | 1% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +16.1 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+19.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+18.3 | D+2.8 | +15.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | D+6.8 | R+9.5 | +16.3 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+27.2 | D+9.3 | +17.8 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | D+5.8 | R+15.8 | +21.6 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+24.1 | D+7.4 | +16.8 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+14.1 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +14.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+14.1
| D Lucy McVitty Weber (i) | 1,610 | ✓ |
| R William J. Sommer | 1,211 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+25.9
| D Weber (i) | 1,439 | ✓ |
| R Winter | 847 |