House District Hillsborough 44 (floterial)
Greater Manchester · 2 seats · Goffstown, Weare · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.2 expected Democratic seats of 2
- Held today
- 0 D, 2 R
- On the ballot
- 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats
- District party margin
- R+9.5 (90% range R+20.5 to D+1.5)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 15%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Ross Berry (incumbent) | R | 92% |
| Lisa Mazur (incumbent) | R | 91% |
| Robert Jones | D | 9% |
| Chris Conroy | D | 9% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -12.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+9.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+9.7 | D+2.8 | -12.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+22.4 | R+9.5 | -12.8 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+4.2 | D+9.3 | -13.6 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+31.6 | R+15.8 | -15.8 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+7.0 | D+7.4 | -14.3 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+13.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+1.2) → lean -9.9, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+13.8
| R Lisa Mazur (i) | 8,269 | ✓ |
| R Ross Berry | 7,871 | ✓ |
| D Marie B. Morgan | 6,329 | |
| D Eric Emmerling | 5,899 |
2022 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+9.1
| R Mazur | 6,006 | ✓ |
| R Corcoran | 5,659 | ✓ |
| D Johnson | 4,859 | |
| D Trumble | 4,854 |