House District Merrimack 12

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 2 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

R+0.2 (90% range R+11.1 to D+10.7)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

56%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Tilt R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Peter Mehegan (incumbent)	R	62%
Brian Seaworth (incumbent)	R	62%
Mariana Beer	D	38%
Kenneth Nivison	D	38%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-3.0
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+0.1

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+1.0	D+2.8	-3.8	0.4
2024 Governor	R+13.1	R+9.5	-3.6	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+8.7	D+9.3	-0.6	0.2
2022 Governor	R+17.8	R+15.8	-2.0	0.1
2020 President	D+3.1	D+7.4	-4.3	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+5.7 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-0.0) → lean -3.1, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 2 of 2 · party margin R+5.7

R Peter L. Mehegan	2,185	✓
R Brian Seaworth (i)	2,161	✓
D Dianne E. Schuett (i)	2,012
D Maurice Regan	1,864

2022 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+4.3

D Schuett (i)	3,361	✓
R Seaworth (i)	3,092	✓
D Regan	3,000
R White (i)	2,748