House District Rockingham 6
Seacoast and Strafford · 1 seat · Brentwood
Forecast
0.7 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 1 D, 0 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- D+1.4 (90% range R+9.6 to D+12.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 0%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 32%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Turer (incumbent) | D | 68% |
| Allen Cook | R | 32% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -1.5 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+1.4 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+2.6 | D+2.8 | -0.3 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+14.5 | R+9.5 | -5.0 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+4.0 | D+9.3 | -5.3 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+20.5 | R+15.8 | -4.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+4.6 | D+7.4 | -2.7 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+1.2 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-2.5) → lean +1.4, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+1.2
| D Eric S. Turer (i) | 1,534 | ✓ |
| R Allen Cook | 1,496 |
2022 — D 1, R 0 of 1 · party margin D+0.7
| D Turer | 1,214 | ✓ |
| R Litchfield (i) | 1,198 |