House District Hillsborough 20

Forecast

Held today

1 D, 1 R

On the ballot

2 Democrats, 2 Republicans for 2 seats

District party margin

D+4.2 (90% range R+6.7 to D+15.0)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

49%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

13%

Rating (seat share)

Lean D

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Alissandra Murray (incumbent)	D	77%
Pauline Martineau	D	59%
Pierre Dupont (incumbent)	R	41%
Jose Marte	R	23%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	+1.3
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	D+4.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 2 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by town)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	D+0.6	D+2.8	-2.2	0.4
2024 Governor	R+9.5	R+9.5	+0.0	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	D+15.3	D+9.3	+6.0	0.2
2022 Governor	R+13.8	R+15.8	+2.0	0.1
2020 President	D+9.8	D+7.4	+2.5	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin D+0.8 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.2) → lean +2.2, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 1, R 1 of 2 · party margin D+0.8

D Alissandra Murray (i)	1,905	✓
R Pierre Dupont	1,889	✓
D Joshua Query	1,680
R Jose R. Marte	1,639

2022 — D 2, R 0 of 2 · party margin D+9.1

D Murray (i)	1,398	✓
D Moulton	1,376	✓
R Dupont	1,160
R Kliskey	1,150