House District Sullivan 7 (floterial)
Upper Valley · 1 seat · Charlestown, Cornish, Newport, Plainfield, Unity · floterial: these towns also elect representatives in their base districts
Forecast
0.3 expected Democratic seat of 1
- Held today
- 0 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 1 Democrat, 1 Republican for 1 seat
- District party margin
- R+1.3 (90% range R+12.2 to D+9.6)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 32%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Lean R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Margaret Drye (incumbent) | R | 68% |
| Lawrence Schissel | D | 32% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -4.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+1.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 1 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by towns)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+3.7 | D+2.8 | -6.5 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+11.4 | R+9.5 | -1.9 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+4.2 | D+9.3 | -5.2 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+19.7 | R+15.8 | -3.9 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+1.8 | D+7.4 | -5.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+7.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -2.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+7.3
| R Margaret M. Drye (i) | 4,904 | ✓ |
| D Jenny Ramsey | 4,236 |
2022 — D 0, R 1 of 1 · party margin R+2.3
| R Drye | 3,603 | ✓ |
| D Bourne | 3,438 |