House District Hillsborough 10
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 3 seats · Nashua Ward 9
Forecast
2.8 expected Democratic seats of 3
- Held today
- 2 D, 1 R
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 1 Republican for 3 seats
- District party margin
- D+11.2 (90% range D+0.4 to D+22.1)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 82%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Likely D
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jack (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Linda Harriott-Gathright (incumbent) | D | 96% |
| Samantha O'Loughlin | D | 89% |
| Bill Ohm (incumbent) | R | 18% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | +8.3 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | D+11.3 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | D+12.0 | D+2.8 | +9.2 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+5.0 | R+9.5 | +4.5 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | D+17.7 | D+9.3 | +8.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+11.0 | R+15.8 | +4.7 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | D+19.8 | D+7.4 | +12.4 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin D+7.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (-1.7) → lean +8.3, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 2, R 1 of 3 · party margin D+7.3
| D Linda Harriott-Gathright (i) | 2,788 | ✓ |
| D Marty Jack (i) | 2,746 | ✓ |
| R Bill Ohm | 2,563 | ✓ |
| D Melbourne Moran Jr. | 2,414 | |
| R Dana Albrecht | 2,206 | |
| R John Cawthron | 2,095 |
2022 — D 3, R 0 of 3 · party margin D+12.1
| D O'Brien (i) | 4,291 | ✓ |
| D Harriott-Gathright (i) | 4,220 | ✓ |
| D Jack (i) | 4,062 | ✓ |
| R Ohm | 3,633 | |
| R Cawthron | 3,168 | |
| R Thoman | 3,063 |