House District Belknap 7

Forecast

Held today

0 D, 3 R

On the ballot

3 Democrats, 3 Republicans for 3 seats

District party margin

R+24.2 (90% range R+35.2 to R+13.3)

Chance Democrats gain seats here

0%

Chance Democrats lose seats here

0%

Rating (seat share)

Safe R

Seat split distribution

Candidates

Candidate	Party	Win chance
Paul Terry (incumbent)	R	100%
Peter Varney (incumbent)	R	100%
Barbara Comtois (incumbent)	R	100%
Stephen Copithorne	D	0%
Laura Dunham	D	0%
Nancy Mitchell	D	0%

How the forecast was built

Statewide generic legislative margin (environment)	D+2.9
+ District partisan lean	-27.1
= Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate)	R+24.2

Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 3 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.

Partisan lean (exact by towns)

Race	District	Statewide	Lean	Weight
2024 President	R+24.3	D+2.8	-27.2	0.4
2024 Governor	R+35.9	R+9.5	-26.4	0.15
2022 U.S. Senate	R+23.0	D+9.3	-32.3	0.2
2022 Governor	R+45.3	R+15.8	-29.6	0.1
2020 President	R+22.8	D+7.4	-30.2	0.15

Last House result (2024): party margin R+28.4 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -23.3, blended at 30%.

Past results in this district

2024 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+28.4

R Peter R. Varney (i)	4,159	✓
R Barbara Comtois (i)	4,031	✓
R Paul A. Terry (i)	4,019	✓
D Ruth Larson	2,547
D Susan Church Stevens	2,130
D Stephanie Vuolo	2,124

2022 — D 0, R 3 of 3 · party margin R+23.2

R Varney (i)	2,999	✓
R Comtois (i)	2,992	✓
R Terry (i)	2,966	✓
D Dumais	1,951
D O'Neil	1,853
D Copithorne	1,774