House District Rockingham 25
Nashua and the Massachusetts border · 9 seats · Salem
Forecast
0.1 expected Democratic seats of 9
- Held today
- 0 D, 8 R, 1 vacant
- On the ballot
- 3 Democrats, 9 Republicans for 9 seats
- District party margin
- R+18.0 (90% range R+28.8 to R+7.2)
- Chance Democrats gain seats here
- 6%
- Chance Democrats lose seats here
- 0%
- Rating (seat share)
- Safe R
Seat split distribution
Candidates
| Candidate | Party | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Sweeney (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Valerie McDonnell (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| John Janigian (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Dennis Mannion (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Susan Vandecasteele (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| John Sytek (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| Lorie Ball (incumbent) | R | 99% |
| George Kassas | R | 98% |
| Edward Huminick | R | 98% |
| Donna Loranger | D | 3% |
| Kienen Dyer | D | 3% |
| Claudia DeFuria | D | 3% |
How the forecast was built
| Statewide generic legislative margin (environment) | D+2.9 |
| + District partisan lean | -20.9 |
| = Expected party margin (mean Democratic candidate vs mean Republican candidate) | R+18.0 |
Each candidate's share is the party's share plus 2.5 points if an incumbent, plus a candidate-specific draw (SD 3.5 points, estimated from how far same-party candidates finished apart in 2022 and 2024). The district margin itself carries statewide, regional and district error (district SD 5.0 pts). The top 9 by share win. Independents are placed with the weaker major party minus a 6.0-point penalty.
Inputs
Partisan lean (exact by town)
| Race | District | Statewide | Lean | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 President | R+19.0 | D+2.8 | -21.8 | 0.4 |
| 2024 Governor | R+31.1 | R+9.5 | -21.6 | 0.15 |
| 2022 U.S. Senate | R+14.0 | D+9.3 | -23.4 | 0.2 |
| 2022 Governor | R+39.2 | R+15.8 | -23.5 | 0.1 |
| 2020 President | R+13.2 | D+7.4 | -20.6 | 0.15 |
Last House result (2024): party margin R+23.3 vs a statewide legislative environment of R+2.6, incumbency removed (+2.5) → lean -18.2, blended at 30%.
Past results in this district
2024 — D 0, R 9 of 9 · party margin R+23.3
| R Joe Sweeney (i) | 9,723 | ✓ |
| R Fred Doucette (i) | 9,685 | ✓ |
| R Lorie Ball (i) | 9,583 | ✓ |
| R Tanya Donnelly (i) | 9,399 | ✓ |
| R John Janigian (i) | 9,221 | ✓ |
| R John Sytek (i) | 9,120 | ✓ |
| R Valerie McDonnell (i) | 9,084 | ✓ |
| R Susan J. Vandecasteele (i) | 8,991 | ✓ |
| R Dennis Mannion (i) | 8,470 | ✓ |
| D Claire Karibian | 6,217 | |
| D Donna Loranger | 6,068 | |
| D Jack Connell | 5,832 | |
| D Greg F. Davis | 5,663 | |
| D Dionne Garon | 5,596 | |
| D Daniel Guild | 5,486 | |
| D Ernest M. Hicks | 5,414 |
2022 — D 0, R 9 of 9 · party margin R+23.1
| R Ball | 7,105 | ✓ |
| R Doucette (i) | 6,900 | ✓ |
| R Sweeney (i) | 6,718 | ✓ |
| R Janigian (i) | 6,679 | ✓ |
| R Donnelly | 6,668 | ✓ |
| R Sytek (i) | 6,634 | ✓ |
| R McDonnell | 6,347 | ✓ |
| R Vandecasteele (i) | 6,307 | ✓ |
| R Mannion | 6,032 | ✓ |
| D Wright | 4,743 | |
| D Loranger | 4,326 | |
| D Dillingham | 4,300 | |
| D Karibian | 4,262 | |
| D Misra | 4,101 | |
| D Thibault | 4,090 | |
| D Garon | 3,907 | |
| D Davis | 3,819 | |
| D Disenhof | 3,577 |